‘There are things we know, we don’t know, but there are also unknown unknowns. There are things  we don’t know, we don’t know’- No this isn’t a quote from Richie Pugh Ospreys coach, at the Pro 14 Press conference this week, when he was questioned about the departure of head coach Allen Clarke. Donald Rumsfeld ex US defence secretary provided this quote during his second tenure as Defence Secretary under George W Bush, but he could well have been talking about the circumstances surrounding the Irish man’s exit from the Liberty Stadium.

🏉 “I’m struggling to even know what I can ask you” pic.twitter.com/lRo8NvjWj5— BBC Sport Wales (@BBCSportWales) November 27, 2019

Richie Pugh attempts to navigate BBC sport Wales questions on 27.11.19

The Radio silence from the region has been deafening, with Pugh and James Hook being thrown to the Wolves at the press conference in Cardiff this week. There was talk over the legal technicalities still being sorted out, which has thus far prevented the Ospreys from officially announcing Clarke leaving. Where does it leave the Ospreys? Well… it’s not the best news for a region reeling from a litany of injuries to key players, off the back of a resounding 44-3 loss to English champions Saracens last weekend. That performance seemed to sum the Ospreys up so far this year, no direction, no plan and no ability to compete on the pitch.

The Halycon days of the Galacticos era are long gone, since the departure of Sean Holley in 2012, the Ospreys have been in perpetual decline. They have lost players in Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar who not only are world class players, but local players who progressed through the Ospreys academy. The money is no longer available to simply sign the big name players of yesteryear, I suggested on Twitter last week that many Ospreys fans took the region’s success for granted. The World cup saw Llandarcy a sparsely populated training area and many of our players have come back walking wounded. The loss of recent signing Gareth Anscombe in August, has seen Luke Price and James Hook directing play. No matter which way you look at that, it’s a considerable drop in standard from Anscombe. With the insurance money coming in for Anscombe, The Ospreys have signed Marty Mackenzie from the Waikato Chiefs in Super Rugby.

As an Ospreys fan, looking in from the outside. I can’t help but feel the region has lost it’s identity, to focus matches on a half full Liberty stadium, ignoring the hotbeds of Neath and Bridgend (bar pre season friendlies and LV cup games) has not made any financial sense. There was a time where the Ospreys could boast the second highest selling Rugby Shirt in the UK (Behind Leicester Tigers). I’d make a fair bet we no longer sell the second most shirts in Wales, let alone the UK. There is still serious talent on display who are local born players, Justin Tipuric and Alun Wyn Jones would be welcomed with open arms by most clubs in the Champions Cup. Tipuric is rumoured to be wanted by the Bristol Bears when his contract ends at the end of the season. He is a true son of Trebanos and I feel this would be the main factor in the Ospreys retaining his services, as the opportunity for club success and salary are far bigger across the Severn Bridge.

The once dominant Academy seems to be losing players to institutions like Hartpury College at record speed, although this is not a problem with just the Ospreys. The Blues have also lost a plethora of talented players to Bristol Bears academy and Exeter Chiefs Academy. This is the real player drain I think the WRU should focus on, not the 60 cap rule. Regional Rugby is in disarray, the Ospreys seem to be a blueprint in how not to do things at the moment. Clarke has left in the same week backs coach Matt Sherratt announced he will be leaving at the end of the season. The parallels with the mistakes made by the other team playing out of the Liberty stadium is stark. If there is no stability in the coaching team, there will be a mishmash of players in the first team squad, with no identity.

But back to this week’s news, the ultra talented Squidge Rugby reviewed the decline in Ospreys performances last season, his video gave a detailed analysis on what had changed with the Ospreys and what, if any hope there was for supporters. Please see his video here, once you watch that, you will be entertained by the other video’s he has produced.

How can Ospreys move forward? They need to make a statement with their next coaching appointment. We all know the budget isn’t there to bring in a big name coach, but they need someone with energy, a point to prove and someone that will command respect from everyone in the Squad. I am going to look at some options which I think would achieve these aims, and start to change the environment in Ospreylia.

Adam Jones- Born and raised in Abercrave, he started his career with Neath RFC and then progressed onto the Ospreys, Wales and the British and Irish Lions. Jones also played for the Cardiff Blues and Harlequins, before ending his playing career and joining the backroom staff at The Stoop. Kyle Sinkler has acknowledged the help Jones has given him in developing his game, and supported him in becoming a World Class player. Jones is an intelligent player, who at times seemed to be a back trapped in a tight heads body. Jones’s knowledge is required as a matter of urgency by Ospreys. Their pack has been going backwards this year, they have been struggling at set piece, but this has not been helped by their injury crisis and them having a lot of players in Japan, who are now on a rest period.

Jones has previously stated that he does not want to return to Wales, just yet. But surely the offer of a job with his home region would be a tempting offer. I would personally, love to see Jones back at Ospreys and feel he would be a success at the region. If Jones wasn’t to be offered the job as a head man, he could easily become the joint head coach, with responsibility for the Forwards and front row. I feel this is a critical time for the three times league champions. Getting Adam Jones in the building would not require a media fanfare, he would be a success at the region. Likelihood- 5/10- I think Jones is happy with Harlequins and would not want to come into a head coach role at a region in such disarray at the moment.

Mark Jones- The former Wales wing, from Builth Wells, is currently a free agent. Jones left RGC in the Welsh Premiership after three years at the end of last season. Jones has been the backs coach at the Scarlets and with Wales in 2012-2013 when the coaching staff were shook up in a Lions year. He has been the head coach at Rotherham in the English championship and with RGC. Jones had RGC playing some nice Rugby and he rode the wave of success in Colwyn Bay. RGC were a professionally run club, who pushed for top spot in the Premiership. Jones left due to the toll the long distance travelling was having on his family, would he be prepared to step back into a head coaching role with the Ospreys, I imagine he would. I like Jones and think he is a bright and enthusiastic coach, he would need to lead the rest of the coaches in the region and would be stepping into a sticky situation. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but Ospreys could make much worse appointments than Jones. Likelihood- 7/10- the cost effective appointment, this would make Jones a more attractive appointment, again it’s whether Jones would want to step into a chaotic situation at this point.

Phil Davies- A coach with a host of experience from his time in charge of Leeds Tykes, Scarlets, Cardiff Blues and Wales Under 20’s. Davies has recently been coaching Namibia at the World Cup in Japan. Davies strikes me as a no nonsense coach, who could be what the Ospreys need… in the short term. As a long term option I don’t think Davies is the man, but as a bridge coach to stabilise the region and sift out the deadwood he could be ideal. Another who would not require any compensation for an employer. Likelihood 6.5/10- Davies’s reputation isn’t what it used to be, but his track record at regional level is decent. He got the Scarlets to a European cup semi-final and did ok with the Blues, although at the time the Blues were an off field shambles.

Dwayne Peel- Now, I haven’t seen Peel discussed in any conversations online, he was a fantastic player who performed at the highest level, he was a bright spot in a dour 2005 Lions tour to New Zealand. Peel started his coaching career at Bristol, where he was backs and team attack coach, as Bristol yo-yoed between the Premiership and The Championship. Peel has been an assistant coach at Ulster since 2017, I feel that Peel could be a very good appointment for Ospreys, my choice would be to combine him with Adam Jones in a shared responsibility role. Peel is a famous son of the Scarlets region, hailing from Tumble. But the lure of a head coaching role could tempt him to Ospreys. Likelihood- 5/10- I think Peel’s name hasn’t been mentioned for a reason, he may be happy in his current role, or feel like he needs more time to develop. Would stepping into the pressure cooker that is Ospreys be the right move for him at the moment, probably not. But I would like to see the region take a gamble and offer someone with a long term plan the job.

Sean Holley- Involved in all three of our league championships, Holley has not coached since leaving Bristol in 2016. Holley is a Rugby academic, he provides detailed analysis for Premier Sport, having formally appeared as the tactical expert on Scrum V. Holley has stated that he would be interested in helping out at the region, where he had his most success. He designed the Rugby studies course at Hartpury college, which many coaches have since studied and still has an astute Rugby brain. Which would be a breath of fresh air at a region which has lost its spark recently. Likelihood 7.5/10- Holley to come in on a rescue mission, could be an inspired choice. He has the respect of senior members of the squad and tries to play attacking Rugby which would get the fans on side. The negative is, he is still haunted by Ospreys failure in Europe under his leadership. I wouldn’t mind Holley back, but the region would need to identify a longer term plan.

” I am very close to the game, and still have a huge appetite…. I certainly wouldn’t turn down the offer of helping in any capacity, and that’s not just at the Ospreys”

Sean Holley describes his interest in returning to coaching to Wales Online’s Andy Howell.

Those are my main candidates, there are also some other options which I feel are less likely:

Lyn Jones- The First head coach for Ospreys, he has most recently coached Russia to their second World cup appearance. Jones last job in Wales was with the Dragons. I can’t see Jones being hired for a second stint at the Liberty. Likelihood 4/10

Kingsley Jones- Another welsh coach who was at the World cup, in this case with Canada. Jones had a tandem role with Lyn Jones at the Dragons, but I do not think he’s a viable option for Ospreys at the moment.  Likelihood 3/10

I think Rob Howley would have been a serious candidate, if he wasn’t involved in the fallout from his departure from the World Cup. likelihood 2/10.

Filo Tiatia is already a hero at the region, he has done well as head coach of NPC side Auckland, but i think he is out of reach for Ospreys at the moment. Likelihood- 4/10.

Internal:

Carl Hogg- Currently the Forwards coach at Ospreys, he has been the head coach of Worcester Warriors in the past. Hogg is already in the environment and will be fully aware of the challenges facing the coaching staff. Hogg is rated by the other members of the coaching staff at the region and would be a relatively straight forward appointment for the region as this would be the least disruptive approach. Likelihood 9/10. It’s the logical choice for a region who will already be replacing a backs coach next summer, even as a caretaker head coach. It makes sense for Hogg to be promoted. Not the most exciting appointment, but the more pragmatic.

Oh, how Ospreys fans would dream of the region defending themselves against allegations of them breaching the salary cap like Saracens, or announcing the signing of the sensational Semi Radrada like Bristol. It’s a different world in The Gallagher premiership. There are rumours of the Ospreys trying to sign Liam Williams next year, they need to sort out the mess off the pitch before signing Sanjay. With back to back games against Racing 92, and the return games against Saracens and Munster, there are certainly challenging times ahead.