Now that the squads have been announced and the final warm up games played, I thought it was about time that I wrote a Rugby World cup preview. I am trying to provide my honest opinion on how I think the tournament will go for both Wales and the other teams involved. Looking at each teams form coming into the competition and identifying key players, ones to watch and key games for each team.
Ireland. World Ranking 2nd . Official Twitter
World Cup History: Quarter finalists in 1987, 1991.1995,2003, 2011 and 2015.
How are they looking? Ireland were at the peak of their powers in November 2018 when they beat New Zealand in Dublin for their first ever victory over them on home soil. Ireland had also won the last two Six nations titles and were looking like a team set to challenge for the World Cup. Ireland then lost twice in the 2019 Six nations against England and Wales. Many felt that Ireland had peaked too soon before the World Cup due to their performances at the start of the year. Ireland’s second string then comfortably beat Italy this summer, they headed to Twickenham for their second warm up game and were decimated by a clinical England team in a record 57-15 defeat. A win over Wales in Cardiff was followed by another victory over the welsh in their final warm up. The men in green head to Japan ranked number two in the world, there are question marks about their ageing key players namely Rory Best and Johnny Sexton, but they also have strength in depth and come into the tournament looking at progressing past the Quarter finals for the first time.
Key Man: Johnny Sexton, at 34 years of age the former St Mary’s college stand off is heading into the twilight of his illustrious career. He remains the main pivot in the Irish team and is a talismanic leader on and off the pitch. Sexton has a winner’s attitude, a World cup win would secure him a full house of honours in the game. Sexton has battled injuries throughout his career and his brave playing style leads to him relishing the physical side of the game. Ireland look like a different team with him at 10, with his understudy Joey Carberry struggling for fitness himself, Ireland will need Sexton to remain fit to stand a chance of progressing.
One to watch: Jacob Stockdale, The son of a Presbyterian minister took to International Rugby like a duck to Water. Stockdale has been showing glimpses of his return to top form in the summer, he has proven to be a match winner in the big games, most notably against New Zealand in 2018. If Stockdale gets in a try scoring groove Ireland will be there or thereabouts come October.
Key Game: Ireland V Scotland 22.9.19
Getting off to a winning start will set Ireland well on the way to a safe passage through the group stage. They will be hoping to secure the top spot in Pool A, but they will face a tricky match up against Japan in the second game and a victory over the Scots will take a lot of pressure off facing the host nation.
Honest prediction: A relatively straight forward group for the Irish should see them progress with ease, they face a very difficult Quarter final with them being paired with New Zealand and South Africa’s group. This will be a huge game for Ireland and although they have beaten both of these teams recently, I think they will come up just short. The conditions in Japan will not be ideal for Ireland as they may struggle in the humidity. If Sexton can stay fit they will have a chance against these sides and in a tight World cup game his self-belief and leadership will be vital. If they win in the Quarter finals they stand every chance of getting to the final in Joe Schmidt’s last game.
Japan. World Ranking 10th. Official Twitter
World Cup History- Japan have never progressed past the pool stages, but they were desperately unlucky not to progress in 2015 where they were one of the more entertaining teams. Their victory over South Africa in Brighton was one of the all-time classic Rugby games.
How are they looking? Japan won the Pacific nations cup this summer, where they played expansive, attacking Rugby. As they head into a home tournament I feel that they will benefit from the passionate support of the Japanese public. They are organised and play a good tactical game, they will also avoid the short straw in terms of short turnarounds which caused their downfall in 2015.
Key Man: Captain Michael Leitch, the New Zealand born Flanker is a truly world class player. He moved to Japan at the age of 15 and has fully embraced the culture of his adopted nature. Leitch was mightily impressive in 2015 and has been in good form this summer. A vital cog in the machine for Japan who adds physicality to their back row. Leitch will be a man very much in the spotlight this year, but I sense he can deal with this and expect his best Rugby to be played this Autumn.
One to watch: Amanaki Mafi- A breakout 2015 World Cup saw the Tonga born number 8 sign for Bath, he is a dynamic ball carrier who can combine with Leitch in the back row to test teams out. I am a huge fan of Shota Horie the Hooker who at 33 adds veteran experience to the team.
Key Game: Japan v Scotland 13.10.19
Japan have chosen this game to be played last, Scotland come into the game off a four day turnaround and Japan will feel confident that they can beat them and move onto the Quarter Finals. Japan will be bolstered by the support they receive from the Japanese public and will back themselves over anyone due to their ability to score try’s freely.
Honest prediction: I think Japan will sneak past Scotland to progress to the Quarter finals for the first time in their history. Eddie Jones was the catalyst for Japan improving in the last World cup, they have continued to improve and the Sunwolves Super Rugby team has allowed a lot of their players to play at the top level of Southern Hemisphere Rugby. Japan will be a dangerous opponent and punch way above their weight. As a Rugby Nation they have come a long way from the team that once Played Dunvant RFC whilst touring Wales in the 1990’s.
Russia. World Ranking 20th . Official Twitter
World Cup History- Russia featured in the pool stage in 2011 and make their second World Cup appearance this year.
How are they looking? Not great, Lyn Jones has his work cut out as coach. An embarrassing loss to English Championship side Jersey was not ideal preparation for the pinnacle of the World game. They shipped 62 points to the USA in June but did secure a win over Canada before the Jersey game.
Key Man: Vasily Artemyev- The Blackrock college educated Wing/ Full back has experience at Northampton and he captains the team in Japan this year. A speedster who heads into the tournament at the age of 32, he faces a reunion with ex team mates from school and the Leinster academy when Russia face Ireland on 3.10.19.
One to watch: Artemyev will be vital to the Russian cause, his speed will pose a threat to anyone’s defence if he is given space.
Key Game: Russia V Samoa 24.9.19
Lyn Jones will identify this game as his teams main chance of securing a victory. I feel Samoa may be too strong for Russia though.
Honest prediction: I can’t see Russia winning a game at this World cup, but they will be strong and durable and may take some breaking down. Ireland will put a lot of points on them and I think Japan and Scotland will follow suit.
Samoa. World Ranking 16th
World Cup History: Samoa reached the quarter finals in 1991 and 1995 since then as a nation they have lost some considerable talent to the tier one nations and have not been able to do themselves justice.
How are they looking? You can never ignore their physicality. A mixed bag of performances this summer has seen Samoa play four games and win one. A victory over Tonga was wedged between losses to Fiji, USA and Australia, although they pushed Australia hard in their final warm up.
Key Man: Kieron Fonotia- The Kiwi born Scarlets Centre forms part of a talented midfield partnership with Rey Lee-Lo. Fonotia will need to be spot on in defence and create line breaks during the group games for Samoa to add guile to Samoa’s physical force.
One to Watch: Tim Nanai- Williams, the tricky Clermont Auvergne Full back has the ability to conjure try’s from nowhere. He played well in 2015 and Samoa will look to Nanai- Williams, Cousin of Sonny Bill Williams to spark their backline.
Key Game: Russia V Samoa 24.9.19
The game Russia will target as being their best chance of winning, Russia will try to front up against Samoa and will want a bruising encounter, where they will try and arm wrestle Samoa. I feel Samoa will have too much for Russia in this one.
Honest prediction: Samoa are historically a dangerous team to come up against in a World Cup, but it has been a long time since they took a scalp against one of the big boys. Samoa struggle due to the lack of parity in funding they endure, they also could field a very competitive team if World Rugby fought their corner to stop teams poaching their talent. I think Samoa will secure the win over Russia but be beaten by Ireland, Japan and Scotland.
Scotland. World Ranking 7th. Official Twitter
World Cup History: Semi finalists in 1991, Scotland should have made the Semi Finals in 2015 and would have bar a refereeing debacle by Craig Joubert.
How are they looking? Scotland haven’t kicked on since Gregor Townsend replaced Vern Cotter in 2017. Scotland have had a reasonable Summer with a decent performance against France at home, which they then followed up with two comfortable wins over Georgia in Tbilisi and Edinburgh. Scotland have some talented backs and can rip apart defences when allowed.
Key Man: Hamish Watson- The Edinburgh openside is a supremely talented player, a skilful yet scrappy player who is at the fulcrum of every breakdown trying to secure Scottish ball. Watson has been in fine form recently and is a proven international performer, keeping him fit will be imperative for Scotland.
One to watch: Scotland certainly have some dazzling footballers including Stuart Hogg and Darcy Graham, but outside half Finn Russell has the skills to pay the bills and can be a one man highlight reel. He plays with confidence bordering on arrogance and can set a game alight, but he is also able to control a tight game which will be as important in Japan.
Key Game: Japan V Scotland 13.10.19
Japan have pinned their hopes on this game, having opted to play the game last, this leaves Scotland coming into the game on a four day turnaround. Japan obviously feel this will be their chance to beat Scotland and secure a passage into the knockout stage. Scotland will need to play the conditions well and rely on good fortune to keep their star players fit.
Honest opinion: Scotland can progress into the Quarter finals as runners up in the group, if they do I see them running out of steam against either South Africa or New Zealand. The short turn around prior to the Japan game does them no favours. I think Japan will sneak past them into the quarter finals.
The Armchair and Beyond 